Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36938500›Full record

ArticlePNAS nexus2023

Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires.

Philip E Higuera, Maxwell C Cook, Jennifer K Balch, E Natasha Stavros, Adam L Mahood, Lise A St Denis

Full text read
In one paragraph

Article in PNAS nexus, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Prescribed fire is unlikely to reduce net PMProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  3. Review
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  5. Performative planning creates a values mismatch between wildfire plans and community needs.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Wildfires have created instability within risk transfer markets. Here's a path forward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Philip E HigueraDepartment of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5396-9956
Maxwell C CookEarth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
Jennifer K BalchEarth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
E Natasha StavrosEarth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6657-7310
Adam L MahoodEarth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3791-9654
Lise A St DenisEarth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics of fire over space and time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.

Indexed as

anthropogenic wildfiresfire disastershuman impactswestern United Stateswildfire crisis

Identifiers

PMID36938500
PMCPMC10019760

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.