Observational studyJournal of infection and public health2023
Superspreading potentials of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants across different contact settings in Eastern China: A retrospective observational study.
Observational study in Journal of infection and public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesAs the genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 continuously pose threats to global health, evaluating superspreading potentials of emerging genetic variants is of importance for region-wide control of COVID-19 outbreaks.
methodsBy using detailed epidemiological contact tracing data of test-positive COVID-19 cases collected between July and August 2021 in Nanjing and Yangzhou, China, we assessed the superspreading potential of outbreaks seeded by SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants. The transmission chains and case-clusters were constructed according to the individual-based surveillance data. We modelled the disease transmission as a classic branching process with transmission heterogeneity governed by negative binomial models. Subgroup analysis was conducted by different contact settings and age groups.
resultsWe reported a considerable heterogeneity in the contact patterns and transmissibility of Delta variants in eastern China. We estimated an expected 14% (95% CI: 11-16%) of the most infectious cases generated 80% of the total transmission.
conclusionsDelta variants demonstrated a significant potential of superspreading under strict control measures and active COVID-19 detecting efforts. Enhancing the surveillance on disease transmissibility especially in high-risk settings, along with rapid contact tracing and case isolations would be one of the key factors to mitigate the epidemic caused by the emerging genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2.
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