ArticleNature medicine2023
A longitudinal circulating tumor DNA-based model associated with survival in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer.
Article in Nature medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 103 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
103 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Predictive Role of ctDNA and CTCs in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Immunotherapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Pooled it
- The prognostic role of circulating DNA markers in patients with lung malignancies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Biomarkers in medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Comprehensive Review: Unveiling the Pro-Oncogenic Roles of IL-1ß and PD-1/PD-L1 in NSCLC Development and Targeting Their Pathways for Clinical Management.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Role of ctDNA in Predicting the Outcome of Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer Treated with First-line Ribociclib and Letrozole: BioItaLEE Trial.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026Trial
- ctDNA and tumor-based biomarkers of giredestrant response in acelERA breast cancer.Nature communications · 2026Trial
- Tumor-Informed ctDNA in Guiding First-Line Immunochemotherapy in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2025Trial
- Circulating tumor DNA monitoring and blood tumor mutational burden in patients with metastatic solid tumors treated with atezolizumab.Molecular oncology · 2025Trial
- Tislelizumab plus cetuximab and irinotecan in refractory microsatellite stable and RAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer: a single-arm phase 2 study.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Identifying key circulating tumor DNA parameters for predicting clinical outcomes in metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer after first-line chemoimmunotherapy.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Applications of circulating tumor DNA in unresectable and advanced non-small cell lung cancer immunotherapy: from stratification to therapeutic guidance.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026Review
- Longitudinal methylated ctDNA increases predict immunotherapy progression across solid tumors.The journal of liquid biopsy · 2026Article
- Molecular differences between poorly and well/moderately differentiated lung adenocarcinoma and their clinical implications.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Molecular Response Assessment From Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients With Ovarian Cancer Treated With the WEE1 Inhibitor Azenosertib.JCO precision oncology · 2026Article
- Interpretable deep learning model of circulating genomics for quantitative survival prediction in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026Article
- Combined circulating tumor antigen model demonstrates additional prognostic value in first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.Journal for immunotherapy of cancer · 2026Article
- High-throughput evaluation of in vitro CRISPR activities enables optimized large-scale multiplex enrichment of rare variants.Nature biomedical engineering · 2026Article
- Early ctDNA Dynamics Predict Response to Mosperafenib in BRAF V600-Mutant Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.Cancer research communications · 2026Article
- Extracellular vesicle and particle biomarkers in cancer: a machine learning blueprint for liquid biopsy.Journal of nanobiotechnology · 2026Review
- Somatic mutation profiling by NGS-based liquid biopsy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: frequency, clinical correlates, and prognostic significance.Molecular biology reports · 2026Article
- Clinical significance of circulating tumor DNA monitoring based on TP53 mutation in high-grade serous ovarian cancer patients.Translational cancer research · 2026Article
43 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
One of the great challenges in therapeutic oncology is determining who might achieve survival benefits from a particular therapy. Studies on longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics for the prediction of survival have generally been small or nonrandomized. We assessed ctDNA across 5 time points in 466 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the randomized phase 3 IMpower150 study comparing chemotherapy-immune checkpoint inhibitor (chemo-ICI) combinations and used machine learning to jointly model multiple ctDNA metrics to predict overall survival (OS). ctDNA assessments through cycle 3 day 1 of treatment enabled risk stratification of patients with stable disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2 (2.0-5.3), P < 0.001; median 7.1 versus 22.3 months for high- versus low-intermediate risk) and with partial response (HR = 3.3 (1.7-6.4), P < 0.001; median 8.8 versus 28.6 months). The model also identified high-risk patients in an external validation cohort from the randomized phase 3 OAK study of ICI versus chemo in NSCLC (OS HR = 3.73 (1.83-7.60), P = 0.00012). Simulations of clinical trial scenarios employing our ctDNA model suggested that early ctDNA testing outperforms early radiographic imaging for predicting trial outcomes. Overall, measuring ctDNA dynamics during treatment can improve patient risk stratification and may allow early differentiation between competing therapies during clinical trials.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.