ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2023
The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.
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34 citing papers in PubMed, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Live-attenuated Mycobacterium tuberculosis vaccine, MTBVAC, in adults with or without M tuberculosis sensitisation: a single-centre, phase 1b-2a, double-blind, dose-escalation, randomised controlled trial.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Trial
- Article
- A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Self-powered rapid antigen-specific T-cell response assay for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections.Nature biomedical engineering · 2026Article
- The synergy of therapeutic vaccination and timely diagnosis for TB control in high-burden settings: Nunavut as a case study.Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2025Article
- Immunopathogenesis of tuberculosis: cellular mechanisms and immune modulation.Veterinary research · 2025Review
- Effects of reductions in US foreign assistance on HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal and child health: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Article
- The potential impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - a modelling exercise.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Willingness to accept new TB vaccines among adults, adolescents and their caregivers in a high TB burden setting.IJTLD open · 2025Article
- Modelling the effect of a nutritional shock on tuberculosis in India.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- The potential impact of reductions in international donor funding on tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- [Status of Tuberculosis Vaccines Development in Clinical Trials].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2025Review
- Tuberculosis: An Update for the Clinician.Respirology (Carlton, Vic.) · 2025Review
- Impact of strategic public health interventions to reduce tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: a Bayesian structural time-series scenario analysis.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Prioritizing countries for TB vaccine readiness research using a global stakeholder-centric approach.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Therapeutic vaccination with the Ag85B-Rv2660c-MPT70 fusion protein enhancesFrontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Estimating the potential health and economic impacts of new tuberculosis vaccines under varying delivery strategies in Delhi and Gujarat, India: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
18 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios.
methodsWe calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy.
findingsThe base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline.
interpretationOur results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up.
fundingWHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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