Multi-weight susceptible-infected model for predicting COVID-19 in China.

Jun Zhang, Nanning Zheng, Mingyu Liu, Dingyi Yao, Yusong Wang, Jianji Wang, Jingmin Xin

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Neurocomputing, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jun ZhangNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Nanning ZhengNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Mingyu LiuNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Dingyi YaoNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Yusong WangNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Jianji WangNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Jingmin XinNational Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, National Engineering Research Center for Visual Information and Applications, and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The mutant strains of COVID-19 caused a global explosion of infections, including many cities of China. In 2020, a hybrid AI model was proposed by Zheng et al., which accurately predicted the epidemic in Wuhan. As the main part of the hybrid AI model, ISI method makes two important assumptions to avoid over-fitting. However, the assumptions cannot be effectively applied to new mutant strains. In this paper, a more general method, named the multi-weight susceptible-infected model (MSI) is proposed to predict COVID-19 in Chinese Mainland. First, a Gaussian pre-processing method is proposed to solve the problem of data fluctuation based on the quantity consistency of cumulative infection number and the trend consistency of daily infection number. Then, we improve the model from two aspects: changing the grouped multi-parameter strategy to the multi-weight strategy, and removing the restriction of weight distribution of viral infectivity. Experiments on the outbreaks in many places in China from the end of 2021 to May 2022 show that, in China, an individual infected by Delta or Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2 can infect others within 3-4 days after he/she got infected. Especially, the proposed method effectively predicts the trend of the epidemics in Xi'an, Tianjin, Henan, and Shanghai from December 2021 to May 2022.

Indexed as

COVID-19 predictionData processingEpidemic modelMulti-weight susceptible-infected model

Identifiers

PMID36923265

DOI10.1016/j.neucom.2023.02.065

PMCPMC9993734

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.