Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36922851›Full record

ReviewJournal of foot and ankle research2023

Risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer development or amputation: a review of reviews.

Anjum S Kaka, Adrienne Landsteiner, Kristine E Ensrud, Brittany Logan, Catherine Sowerby, Kristen Ullman, Patrick Yoon, Timothy J Wilt, Shahnaz Sultan

Open access · goldFull text readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Journal of foot and ankle research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
3.6field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Anjum S Kaka *Section of Infectious Diseases, Minneapolis VA Affairs Health Care System, 1 Veterans Drive, Minneapolis, MN, 111F55417, USA. Anjum.Kaka@va.gov.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1817-8950
Adrienne Landsteiner *Evidence Synthesis Program, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Kristine E EnsrudDepartment of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Brittany LoganSection of Podiatry, Minneapolis VA Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Catherine SowerbyEvidence Synthesis Program, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Kristen UllmanEvidence Synthesis Program, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Patrick YoonSection of Orthopedics, Minneapolis VA Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Timothy J WiltEvidence Synthesis Program, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Shahnaz SultanEvidence Synthesis Program, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Minneapolis VA Health Care System · USUniversity of Minnesota · US

Funding

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Evidence Synthesis Program 09-009
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn adults with diabetes, diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) and amputation are common and associated with significant morbidity and mortality. PURPOSE: Identify tools predicting risk of DFU or amputation that are prognostically accurate and clinically feasible.

methodsWe searched for systematic reviews (SRs) of tools predicting DFU or amputation published in multiple databases from initiation to January, 2023. We assessed risk of bias (ROB) and provided a narrative review of reviews describing performance characteristics (calibration and discrimination) of prognostically accurate tools. For such tools, we additionally reviewed original studies to ascertain clinical applicability and usability (variables included, score calculation, and risk categorization).

resultsWe identified 3 eligible SRs predicting DFU or amputation risk. Two recent SRs (2020 and 2021) were rated as moderate and low ROB respectively. Four risk prediction models - Boyko, Martins-Mendes (simplified), Martins-Mendes (original), and PODUS 2020 had good prognostic accuracy for predicting DFU or amputation over time horizons ranging from 1- to 5-years. PODUS 2020 predicts absolute average risk (e.g., 6% risk of DFU at 2 years) and consists of 3-binary variables with a simple, summative scoring (0-4) making it feasible for clinic use. The other 3 models categorize risk subjectively (e.g., high-risk for DFU at 3 years), include 2-7 variables, and require a calculation device. No data exist to inform rescreening intervals. Furthermore, the effectiveness of targeted interventions in decreasing incidence of DFU or amputation in response to prediction scores is unknown.

conclusionsIn this review of reviews, we identified 4 prognostically accurate models that predict DFU or amputation in persons with diabetes. The PODUS 2020 model, predicting absolute average DFU risk at 2 years, has the most favorable prognostic accuracy and is clinically feasible. Rescreening intervals and effectiveness of intervention based on prediction score are uncertain.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusDiabetic FootFoot UlcerAdultAmputation, SurgicalHumansPrognosisRisk FactorsSystematic Reviews as TopicAmputationDiabetic foot ulcerPrognostic modelRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID36922851
PMCPMC10018902
OpenAlexW4324317486

What OpenQuestion holds

Textfull text, public
LicenceCC BY
reference markers read13
measurements read44
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.