History of Respiratory Events Prior to a First COPD Diagnosis and Future Exacerbations: A Longitudinal Observational Cohort Database Study in Japan.

Background: Little is known about the association between respiratory events prior to diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and future clinical outcomes in Japan. We investigated the association between pre-COPD diagnosis respiratory events and the incidence of exacerbations in a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients in Japan. Patients and Methods: Data were retrieved from the JMDC claims database. Patients ≥40 years old with a first COPD diagnosis (≥1 hospitalization or ≥2 outpatient claims for COPD) between 2010 and 2016 were included. The incidence rate (IR) of exacerbations in patients with or without any respiratory event (including lower respiratory tract infection and respiratory failure) in the year preceding diagnosis was compared. A negative binomial model explored the association between pre-diagnosis respiratory event and IR ratio (IRR) of exacerbations. Results: A total of 20,212 patients newly diagnosed with COPD were identified: 61% male, mean age 55 years (SD 9); of these, 955 (4.7%) had experienced ≥1 respiratory event in the year preceding diagnosis. Median duration of follow-up was 3.3 years during which the IR of exacerbations was 0.31 per patient-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.33) in patients with respiratory event, and 0.11 (95% CI 0.10-0.13) in patients without. The IR for severe exacerbation was nearly 10 times greater in patients with respiratory event versus without. Experiencing respiratory event pre-diagnosis was independently associated with an increased IRR of future moderate-to-severe exacerbation (adjusted IRR, 2.7; 95% CI 2.3-3.1). Conclusion: Patients experiencing respiratory events in the year preceding COPD diagnosis should be considered at-risk of worse clinical COPD outcomes.