ArticleJournal of gastrointestinal oncology2023
A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data.
Article in Journal of gastrointestinal oncology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Beyond Pathological Complete Response: Long-term Outcomes in Esophageal and Esophagogastric Junction Adenocarcinoma After Multimodal Therapy-A Systematic Review and Individual Patient-Data Meta-Analysis.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Molecular characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with gastroesophageal cancer diagnosed at ages younger than 50 years.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2026Article
- Current Concepts for Diagnosing Non-Dysplastic and Dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus.Gastrointestinal endoscopy clinics of North America · 2026Review
- Biomarker Panels Associated with Diagnosis and Overall Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Revealed from Protein-Protein and mRNA-miRNA Interaction Networks.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2025Article
- Measurement and optimization of perioperative risk among patients undergoing surgery for esophageal cancer.Diseases of the esophagus : official journal of the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus · 2024Article
- Advancing Esophageal Cancer Treatment: Immunotherapy in Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Settings.Cancers · 2024Review
- Molecular mechanism detection of stage I to stage II transition of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a system biology approach.Gastroenterology and hepatology from bed to bench · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer. Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. Results: Our forecasting study suggests that the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of esophageal adenocarcinoma for the age group 40-65 years will increase from 2.12 in 2021 to 3.86 in 2040, which corresponds to an 82% increase over the course of 19 years (3.2% per year, 95% CI: -2.3% to 9.1%). In addition, we found a considerable decrease in the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the current age groups 40-65 years (-2.7% per year) and >65 years (-4.6% per year). Conclusions: Preventive efforts of esophageal adenocarcinoma should primarily target males of age up to 65 years and females of current age 40 to 65 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2040.
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