ArticlePloS one2023
Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Short Nicotine Dependence Index: A Simple and Versatile Self-Report Measure of Nicotine Dependence for General Populations.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026Article
- Article
- Tobacco policy coverage in California jurisdictions before and after enactment of proposition 56.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- State and Sociodemographic Trends in US Cigarette Smoking With Future Projections.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Unveiling the Complexities of Medications, Substance Abuse, and Plants for Recreational and Narcotic Purposes: An In-Depth Analysis.Pharmacy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Trends in Smoking and Flavored Tobacco Use in California: Black-White Disparities, 2003-2023.Global journal of epidemiology and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Cigarette Smoking and Risk of Hospitalization With Acute Kidney Injury: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2024Observational
- Pre- and Postnatal Exposures to Tobacco Smoking and Survival of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic and Myeloid Leukemias in California, United States.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024Article
- Patient perceptions of pharmacist-provided tobacco treatment at a federally qualified health center.Journal of the American Pharmacists Association : JAPhAArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption.
methodsWe used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035.
resultsSince 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette consumption was 3.3% per year, but rates of decline varied considerably across US states (SD = 1.1% per year). The Gini coefficient showed growing inequity in cigarette consumption across US states. After reaching its lowest level in 1984 (Gini = 0.09), the Gini coefficient began increasing by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%, 3.1%) per year from 1985 to 2020 and is projected to continue to increase by 48.1% (95% PI = 35.3%, 64.2%) from 2020 to 2035 (Gini = 0.35; 95% PI: 0.32, 0.39). Forecasts from ARIMA models suggested that only 12 states have a realistic chance (≥50%) of reaching very low levels of per capita cigarette consumption (≤13 ppc) by 2035, but that all US states have opportunity to make some progress.
conclusionWhile ideal targets may be out of reach for most US states within the next decade, every US state has the potential to lower its per capita cigarette consumption, and our identification of more realistic targets may provide a helpful incentive.
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