Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36911072›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2023

Severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile in England in 2020: a population-based cohort study.

Charlotte Warren-Gash, Jennifer A Davidson, Helen Strongman, Emily Herrett, Liam Smeeth, Judith Breuer, Amitava Banerjee

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Prospective electrocardiographic and cardiovascular magnetic resonance alterations in the UK Biobank coronavirus disease 2019 repeat imaging study.Journal of cardiovascular magnetic resonance : official journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance · 2025
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  14. Article
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  16. Attitudes and Behaviours Regarding COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Australians With an Underlying Health Condition: A Cross-Sectional Study.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Charlotte Warren-GashDepartment of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Jennifer A DavidsonDepartment of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Helen StrongmanDepartment of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Emily HerrettDepartment of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Liam SmeethDepartment of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Judith BreuerDepartment of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK.
Amitava BanerjeeInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: While cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19, the association between predicted cardiovascular risk and severe COVID-19 among people without diagnosed CVD is unclear. Methods: We carried out historical, population-based cohort studies among adults aged 40-84 years in England using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals were categorized into: existing CVD, raised cardiovascular risk (defined using QRISK3 score ≥10%) and low risk (QRISK3 score <10%) at 12/03/2020. We described incidence and severe outcomes of COVID-19 (deaths, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, hospitalisations, major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) for each group. Among those with a COVID-19 record to 31/12/2020, we re-classified cardiovascular risk at infection and assessed the risk of severe outcomes using multivariable Cox regression with complete case analysis. We repeated analyses using hypertension to define raised cardiovascular risk. Findings: Among 6,059,055 individuals, 741,913 (12.2%) had established CVD, 1,929,627 (31.8%) had a QRISK3 score ≥10% and 3,387,515 (55.9%) had a QRISK3 score <10%. Marked gradients were seen in the incidence of all severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile. Among those with COVID-19 (N = 146,760), there was a strong association between raised QRISK3 score and death: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.77 (7.62-10.10), N = 97,725, which remained present, though attenuated in age-stratified results. Risks of other outcomes were also higher among those with raised QRISK3 score: aHR 3.66 (3.18-4.21) for ICU admissions, 3.38 (3.22-3.56) for hospitalisations, 5.43 (4.44-6.64) for MACE. When raised cardiovascular risk was redefined by hypertension status, only the association with MACE remained: aHR 1.49 (1.20-1.85), N = 57,264. Interpretation: Individuals without pre-existing CVD but with raised cardiovascular risk (by QRISK3 score) were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be prioritised for prevention and treatment. Addressing cardiovascular risk factors could improve COVID-19 outcomes. Funding: BMA Foundation for Medical Research/Rosetrees Trust, Wellcome, BHF.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular riskCohort studyElectronic health recordsHypertensionQRISK3Severe COVID-19 outcomes

Identifiers

PMID36911072
PMCPMC9991014

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.