Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36902542›Full record

ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2023

Establishment and Validation of Predictive Model of Tophus in Gout Patients.

Tianyi Lei, Jianwei Guo, Peng Wang, Zeng Zhang, Shaowei Niu, Quanbo Zhang, Yufeng Qing

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Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Tianyi LeiDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Jianwei GuoResearch Center of Hyperuricemia and Gout, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Peng WangResearch Center of Hyperuricemia and Gout, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Zeng ZhangResearch Center of Hyperuricemia and Gout, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Shaowei NiuResearch Center of Hyperuricemia and Gout, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Quanbo ZhangResearch Center of Hyperuricemia and Gout, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.
Yufeng QingDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000, China.ORCID 0000-0001-6709-7570

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China;Science and Technology Project of Nanchong City 81974250;20SXCXTD0002,20SXQT0308
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

(1) Background: A tophus is a clinical manifestation of advanced gout, and in some patients could lead to joint deformities, fractures, and even serious complications in unusual sites. Therefore, to explore the factors related to the occurrence of tophi and establish a prediction model is clinically significant. (2) Objective: to study the occurrence of tophi in patients with gout and to construct a predictive model to evaluate its predictive efficacy. (3) Methods: The clinical data of 702 gout patients were analyzed by using cross-sectional data of North Sichuan Medical College. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze predictors. Multiple machine learning (ML) classification models are integrated to analyze and identify the optimal model, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation was developed for personalized risk assessment. (4) Results: Compliance of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), Body Mass Index (BMI), course of disease, annual attack frequency, polyjoint involvement, history of drinking, family history of gout, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were the predictors of the occurrence of tophi. Logistic classification model was the optimal model, test set area under curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval, CI): 0.888 (0.839-0.937), accuracy: 0.763, sensitivity: 0.852, and specificity: 0.803. (5) Conclusions: We constructed a logistic regression model and explained it with the SHAP method, providing evidence for preventing tophus and guidance for individual treatment of different patients.

Indexed as

goutmachine learningprediction modelShapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)tophus

Identifiers

PMID36902542
PMCPMC10002994

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