ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2023
Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan.
Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Infant Mortality Trends and Determinants in Kazakhstan.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSince the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have begun to actively use models to determine the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen. The transmission rate, recovery rate and loss of immunity to the COVID-19 virus change over time and depend on many factors, such as the seasonality of pneumonia, mobility, testing frequency, the use of masks, the weather, social behavior, stress, public health measures, etc. Therefore, the aim of our study was to predict COVID-19 using a stochastic model based on the system dynamics approach.
methodWe developed a modified SIR model in AnyLogic software. The key stochastic component of the model is the transmission rate, which we consider as an implementation of Gaussian random walks with unknown variance, which was learned from real data.
resultsThe real data of total cases turned out to be outside the predicted minimum-maximum interval. The minimum predicted values of total cases were closest to the real data. Thus, the stochastic model we propose gives satisfactory results for predicting COVID-19 from 25 to 100 days. The information we currently have about this infection does not allow us to make predictions with high accuracy in the medium and long term.
conclusionsIn our opinion, the problem of the long-term forecasting of COVID-19 is associated with the absence of any educated guess regarding the dynamics of
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