ArticleTobacco control2024
Multistate transition modelling of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking among youth in the UK.
Article in Tobacco control, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between e-cigarette use among non-tobacco users and initiating smoking of combustible cigarettes.Harm reduction journal · 2024Pooled it
- Trends in transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine vapor product use in the Rutgers Omnibus Study, 2022-2026.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Continuous associations of the brief Wisconsin Inventory of Smoking Dependence Motives with transitions between cigarette and e-cigarette use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026Article
- Transitions in ENDS and cigarette use among youth in the PATH Study from 2015-2023: a multistate transition modeling analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Urinary Tobacco and Nicotine Exposure Biomarkers as Predictors of Transitions between Cigarette and e-Cigarette Use in the Exhale Longitudinal Cohort Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026Observational
- Transitions in cigarette and ENDS use in the PATH Study: a multistate transition model analysis of adults in 2021-2022 compared to previous years.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Transitions and patterns in concurrent use of cigarettes and electronic cigarettes: An intensive longitudinal study of adults who smoke cigarettes and recently initiated e-cigarette use.Addictive behaviors · 2025Article
- Tracking the course of vaping and cigarette smoking across adolescence: the Child to Adult Transition Study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- The association of modifiable and socio-demographic factors with first transitions from smoking to exclusive e-cigarette use, dual use or no nicotine use: Findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children United Kingdom birth cohort.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Article
- Risk of adolescent cigarette use in three UK birth cohorts before and after e-cigarettes.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Social Cognitive Influences Associated With Susceptibility to Nicotine and Tobacco Use in Youth in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2025Article
- Scoping of Policy Impacts for Regulating E-cigarettes (SPIRE): findings from a data and decision analytic model mapping project.NIHR open research · 2025Article
- Assessment of e-cigarette dependence and influencing factors among Palestinian young adults: a cross-sectional study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- First experience with nicotine products and transition to regular tobacco use: a secondary data analysis in 28 European countries.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionE-cigarette use remains a controversial topic, with questions over how people transition between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking. This paper examined transitions into and out of nicotine product use in a representative sample of UK youth.
methodsWe used Markov multistate transition probability models on data from 10 229 participants (10-25 years old) in the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2015-2021). We used four product use states ('never', 'non-current use', 'e-cigarette only' and 'smoking and dual use') and estimated likelihood of transitions according to sociodemographic characteristics.
resultsAmong participants who had never used nicotine products, most were still non-users a year later (92.9% probability; 95% CI 92.6%, 93.2%); a small proportion transitioned to using e-cigarettes only (4.0%; 95% CI 3.7%, 4.2%) and cigarettes (2.2%; 95% CI 2.0%, 2.4%). Those aged 14-17 years were the most likely to start using a nicotine product. E-cigarette use was less persistent overtime than cigarette smoking, with a 59.1% probability (95% CI 56.9%, 61.0%) of e-cigarette users still using after 1 year compared with 73.8% (95% CI 72.1%, 75.4%) for cigarette smoking. However, there was a 14% probability (95% CI 12.8%, 16.2%) that e-cigarette users went onto smoke cigarettes after 1 year, rising to 25% (95% CI 23%, 27%) after 3 years.
conclusionThis study found that although overall nicotine product use was relatively rare, participants were more likely to experiment with e-cigarette use than cigarette smoking. This was mostly not persistent over time; however, approximately one in seven transitioned to cigarette smoking. Regulators should aim to deter all nicotine product use among children.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.