ArticlePloS one2023
Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Cycle Threshold Values of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR during Outbreaks in Nursing Homes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Cycle threshold (Ct)values of SARS-CoV2 vary with the type of symptoms and comorbidities of the patients.Molecular biology reports · 2024Article
- Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020-2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundRecent studies indicate that the population-level SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values can inform the trajectory of the pandemic. The presented study investigates the potential of Ct values in predicting the future of COVID-19 cases. We also determined whether the presence of symptoms could change the correlation between Ct values and future cases.
methodsWe examined the individuals (n = 8660) that consulted different sample collection points of a private diagnostic center in Pakistan for COVID-19 testing between June 2020 and December 2021. The medical assistant collected clinical and demographic information. The nasopharyngeal swab specimens were taken from the study participants and real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in these samples.
resultsWe observed that median Ct values display significant temporal variations, which show an inverse relationship with future cases. The monthly overall median Ct values negatively correlated with the number of cases occurring one month after specimen collection (r = -0.588, p <0.05). When separately analyzed, Ct values for symptomatic cases displayed a weak negative correlation (r = -0.167, p<0.05), while Ct values from asymptomatic cases displayed a stronger negative correlation (r = -0.598, p<0.05) with the number of cases in the subsequent months. Predictive modeling using these Ct values closely forecasted the increase or decrease in the number of cases of the subsequent month.
conclusionsDecreasing population-level median Ct values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases appear to be a leading indicator for predicting future COVID-19 cases.
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