How does the local area deprivation influence life chances for children in poverty in Wales: A record linkage cohort study.

Objectives: Children growing up in poverty are less likely to achieve in school and more likely to experience mental health problems. This study examined factors in the local area that can help a child overcome the negative impact of poverty. Design: A longitudinal record linkage retrospective cohort study. Participants: This study included 159,131 children who lived in Wales and completed their age 16 exams (Key Stage 4 (KS4)) between 2009 and 2016. Free School Meal (FSM) provision was used as an indicator of household-level deprivation. Area-level deprivation was measured using the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2011. An encrypted unique Anonymous Linking Field was used to link the children with their health- and educational records. Outcome measures: The outcome variable 'Profile to Leave Poverty' (PLP) was constructed based on successful completion of age 16 exams, no mental health condition, no substance and alcohol misuse records in routine data. Logistic regression with stepwise model selection was used to investigate the association between local area deprivation and the outcome variable. Results: 22% of children on FSM achieved PLP compared to 54.9% of non-FSM children. FSM Children from least deprived areas were significantly more likely to achieve PLP (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) - 2.20 (1.93, 2.51)) than FSM children from most deprived areas. FSM children, living in areas with higher community safety, higher relative income, higher access to services, were more likely to achieve PLP than their peers. Conclusion: The findings indicate that community-level improvements such as increasing safety, connectivity and employment might help in child's education attainment, mental health and reduce risk taking behaviours.