ArticleBMC public health2023
The COVID-19 pandemic's true death toll in Iran after two years: an interrupted time series analysis of weekly all-cause mortality data.
Article in BMC public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Mortality Patterns and Trends in Fars Province, Iran (2015-2024): A Retrospective Analysis of Death Records.Iranian journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- The impact of changes in health policies caused by COVID-19 on pregnancy outcomes in Iran during health crises: A retrospective quasi-experimental study.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Article
- Hematologic and Computed Tomography Features for Discriminating COVID-19 From Non-COVID-19 Pneumonia.Archives of Razi Institute · 2025Article
- The association between nutrient patterns and hospital stay duration and symptoms in COVID-19 in Iranian patients: cross-sectional study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Detecting the Seasonal and Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 Hospitalization and Deaths in Iran: Insights from a Spatiotemporal and Hotspot Analysis.International journal of preventive medicine · 2025Article
- Epidemic characteristics and effectiveness of vaccine intervention on rotavirus infection: a real-world observational study in Zhejiang Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- All-Cause and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic in North-East of Iran: Reiterating the Significance of High-Quality Healthcare Systems.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Comprehensive assessment of COVID-19 case fatality rate and influential factors in Khuzestan Province, Iran: a two-year study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2024Article
- Non-COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a longitudinal assessment of 41 million people in 2019-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
introductionThis study aimed to investigate overall and age group/region/sex-specific excess all-cause mortality from the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran until February 2022.
methodsWeekly all-cause mortality data were obtained for the period March 2015 until February 2022. We conducted interrupted time series analyses, using a generalized least-square regression model to estimate excess mortality after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this approach, we estimated the expected post-pandemic death counts based on five years of pre-pandemic data and compared the results with observed mortality during the pandemic.
resultsAfter the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed an immediate increase (1,934 deaths per week, p = 0.01) in weekly all-cause mortality. An estimated 240,390 excess deaths were observed in two years after the pandemic. Within the same period, 136,166 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19. The excess mortality was greatest among males compared with females (326 versus 264 per 100k), with an increasing trend by age group. There is a clear increased excess mortality in the central and northwestern provinces.
conclusionWe found that the full mortality burden during the outbreak has been much heavier than what is officially reported, with clear differences by sex, age group, and geographical region.
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