ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2023
Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
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37 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Global burden and trends of non-communicable diseases among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort and frontier analysis with projections to 2035.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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- Projecting tuberculosis control progress in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil, 2001-2035: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Global trends and inequalities in hypertensive and ischemic heart disease attributable to high body mass index: A systematic analysis from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2035.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2025Article
- Forecasting Ischemic Heart Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease Mortality in Brazil Through 2040: A Bayesian Modeling Approach.Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia · 2025Article
- Temporal trends in heart failure burden among young adults in China: a systematic analysis from 1990 to 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Global burden of liver cancer attributable to drug use: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Method-specific suicide mortality rates among older adults in 47 countries and territories, 1996-2021, with projections to 2050: a global time series and modelling study.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2025Article
- Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Global, Regional, and National Trends in Maternal Mortality Ratio Across 37 High Income Countries From 1990 to 2021, With Projections up to 2050: A Comprehensive Analysis From the WHO Mortality Database.Journal of Korean medical science · 2025Article
- Long-term trends and future projections of liver cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2030.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Background: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures. Methods: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan. Findings: In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women). Interpretation: After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures. Funding: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.
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