ArticleNPJ vaccines2023
Estimating immunity with mathematical models for SARS-CoV-2 after COVID-19 vaccination.
Article in NPJ vaccines, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mechanisms underlying immunodynamics of layered defenses elicited by mRNA vaccination in children.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Using Machine Learning to Identify Factors Affecting Antibody Production and Adverse Reactions After COVID-19 Vaccination.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Modelling the Variability in Immunity Build-Up and Waning Following RNA-Based Vaccination.Viruses · 2025Article
- Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Article
- Ensemble modeling of SARS-CoV-2 immune dynamics in immunologically naïve rhesus macaques predicts that potent, early innate immune responses drive viral elimination.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Tools that can be used to estimate antibody waning following COVID-19 vaccinations can facilitate an understanding of the current immune status of the population. In this study, a two-compartment-based mathematical model is formulated to describe the dynamics of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody in healthy adults using serially measured waning antibody concentration data obtained in a prospective cohort study of 673 healthcare providers vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine. The datasets of 165 healthcare providers and 292 elderly patients with or without hemodialysis were used for external validation. Internal validation of the model demonstrated 97.0% accuracy, and external validation of the datasets of healthcare workers, hemodialysis patients, and nondialysis patients demonstrated 98.2%, 83.3%, and 83.8% accuracy, respectively. The internal and external validations demonstrated that this model also fits the data of various populations with or without underlying illnesses. Furthermore, using this model, we developed a smart device application that can rapidly calculate the timing of negative seroconversion.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.