Estimation of Multiyear Consequences for Abortion Access in Georgia Under a Law Limiting Abortion to Early Pregnancy.

Importance: Following the US Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization, Georgia's law limiting abortion to early pregnancy, House Bill 481 (HB481), was allowed to go into effect in July 2022. Objectives: To estimate anticipated multiyear effects of HB481, which prohibits abortions after detection of embryonic cardiac activity, on abortion incidence in Georgia, and to examine inequities by race, age, and socioeconomic status. Design, Setting, and Participants: This repeated cross-sectional analysis used abortion surveillance data from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, to estimate future effects of HB481 on abortion care in Georgia, with a focus on the 2 most recent years of data (2016 and 2017). Abortion surveillance data were obtained from the 2007-2017 Georgia Department of Public Health's Induced Termination of Pregnancy files. Linear regression was used to estimate trends in abortions provided at less than 6 weeks' gestation and at 6 weeks' gestation or later in Georgia, and χ2 analyses were used to compare group differences by race, age, and educational attainment. Data were analyzed from July 26 to September 22, 2022. Exposures: HB481, Georgia's law limiting abortion to early pregnancy. Main Outcome and Measures: Weeks' gestation at abortion (<6 vs ≥6 weeks). Results: From January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, there were 360 972 reported abortions in Georgia, with an annual mean (SD) of 32 816 (1812) abortions. Estimates from 2016 to 2017 suggest that 3854 abortions in Georgia (11.6%) would likely meet eligibility requirements for abortion care under HB481. Fewer abortions obtained by Black patients (1943 [9.6%] vs 1280 [16.2%] for White patients), patients younger than 20 years (261 [9.1%] vs 168 [15.0%] for those 40 years and older), and patients with fewer years of education (392 [9.2%] with less than a high school diploma and 1065 [9.6%] with a high school diploma vs 2395 [13.5%] for those with some college) would likely meet eligibility requirements under HB481. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that Georgia's law limiting abortion to early pregnancy (HB481) would eliminate access to abortion for nearly 90% of patients in Georgia, and disproportionately harm patients who are Black, younger, and in lower socioeconomic status groups.