ArticleFrontiers in public health2023
Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Accounting for spatial variation in weather factors predicts spatial variations in Culex quinquefasciatus abundance in the Desert Southwest.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Accounting for spatial variation in climatic factors predicts spatial variations in mosquito abundance in the desert southwest.Research square · 2025Article
- Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change.Trends in molecular medicine · 2025Review
- Integrating Wind Speed Into Climate-Based West Nile Virus Models: A Comparative Analysis in Two Distinct Regions.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Unveiling spatial patterns of West Nile virus emergence in northern Greece, 2010-2023.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Public health contributions of entomological surveillance of West Nile virus (WNV) and other mosquito-borne arboviruses in a context of climate change.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2024Article
- Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017-2022 using a zero-inflated model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010-2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.
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