Combining environmental and socioeconomic data to understand determinants of conflicts in Colombia.

Conflicts cause immense human suffering, violate human rights, and affect people's stability. Colombia is affected for decades by a high level of armed conflicts and violence. The political and socio-economic situation, drug trafficking in the Colombian economy, and natural disasters events affect the country and foster general violence. In this work, we aim to evaluate the role of the socioeconomic, political, financial, and environmental determinants of conflicts in the Colombian context. To achieve these aims, we apply a spatial analysis to explore patterns and identify areas that suffer from high levels of conflict. We investigate the role of determinants and their relationship with conflicts through spatial regression models. In this study, we do not consider only the entire Colombian territory, but we extend the analysis to a restricted area (Norte de Santander department) to explore the phenomena locally. Our findings indicate a possible diffusion process of conflicts and the presence of spillover effects among regions by comparing the two most known spatial regression models. As regards possible key drivers of conflicts, our results show that surprisingly socioeconomic variables present very little relationship with conflicts, while natural disasters and cocaine areas show a relevant impact on them. Despite some variables seeming to be the more informative to explain the process globally, they highlight a strong relationship for only a few specific areas while considering a local analysis. This result proves the importance of moving to a local investigation to strengthen our understanding and bring out additional interesting information. Our work emphasizes how the identification of key drivers of violence is crucial to have evidence to inform subnational governments and to support the decision-making policies that could assess targeted policy options.