Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36869041›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields.

Matias Heino, Pekka Kinnunen, Weston Anderson, Deepak K Ray, Michael J Puma, Olli Varis, Stefan Siebert, Matti Kummu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed.

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  14. Peptide Hormone-Mediated Regulation of Plant Development and Environmental Adaptability.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Matias HeinoWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Finland, Tietotie 1E, 02150, Espoo, Finland. matias.heino@aalto.fi.ORCID 0000-0003-4294-7756
Pekka KinnunenWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Finland, Tietotie 1E, 02150, Espoo, Finland.ORCID 0000-0003-0373-2795
Weston AndersonInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3755-9943
Deepak K RayInstitute On the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2856-9608
Michael J PumaCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4255-8454
Olli VarisWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Finland, Tietotie 1E, 02150, Espoo, Finland.ORCID 0000-0001-9231-4549
Stefan SiebertDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Von-Siebold-Str. 8, 37075, Goettingen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9998-0672
Matti KummuWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Finland, Tietotie 1E, 02150, Espoo, Finland. matti.kummu@aalto.fi.ORCID 0000-0001-5096-0163

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980-2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, we found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, our study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production.

Indexed as

ClimateWeatherCold TemperatureProbabilitySeasonsTriticum

Identifiers

PMID36869041
PMCPMC9984494

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.