Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36862942›Full record

ArticleDiabetes care2023

Refining the Definition of Stage 1 Type 1 Diabetes: An Ontology-Driven Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Multiple Islet Autoimmunity.

Brigitte I Frohnert, Mohamed Ghalwash, Ying Li, Kenney Ng, Jessica L Dunne, Markus Lundgren, William Hagopian, Olivia Lou, Christiane Winkler, Jorma Toppari and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetes care, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Impact of screening programmes for type 1 diabetes in youth: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
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  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Are We Ready With Prevention for Type 1 Diabetes?Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews · 2025
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Brigitte I FrohnertBarbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado, Denver, CO.ORCID 0000-0002-6636-4048
Mohamed GhalwashCenter for Computational Health at IBM Research at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY.
Ying LiCenter for Computational Health at IBM Research at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY.
Kenney NgCenter for Computational Health at IBM Research at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Cambridge, MA.ORCID 0000-0003-0792-070X
Jessica L DunneJDRF, New York, NY.ORCID 0000-0002-0134-4177
Markus LundgrenDepartment of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
William HagopianPacific Northwest Research Institute, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0003-2979-0475
Olivia LouJDRF, New York, NY.
Christiane WinklerInstitute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich-Neuherberg, Munich, Germany.
Jorma ToppariInstitute of Biomedicine and Population Research Centre, University of Turku and Department of Pediatrics, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland.
Riitta VeijolaDepartment of Pediatrics, PEDEGO Research Unit, University of Oulu and Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland.
Vibha AnandCenter for Computational Health at IBM Research at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Cambridge, MA.ORCID 0000-0001-8605-5712
T1DI Study Group

Funding

University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus DRCP30DK116073 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI LORI SUSSEL · 2020 to 2026
$10.8M
Natural History of Pre-Diabetic Autoimmunity (DAISY)R01DK032493 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI REWERS, MARIAN J · 1986 to 2024
$9.3M
Natural History of Pre-diabetic Autoimmunity (DAISY)R37DK032493 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI REWERS, MARIAN J · 2001 to 2010
$8.0M
Multiple Autoantigens/Multiple Epitopes of Type 1DMR01DK032083 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI MICHELS, AARON W · 1986 to 2025
$6.9M
ISLET CELL MEMBRANE ANTIBODIES IN DIABTESR01DK026190 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HAMPE, CHRISTIANE S · 1986 to 2016
$4.9M
Nutrigenetics & -genomics of Vitamin D and Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Type 1 DiabetesR01DK104351 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI NORRIS, JILL M · 2014 to 2018
$2.9M
MULTIPLE AUTOANTIGENS OF PRETYPE I DMR37DK032083 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI EISENBARTH, GEORGE S · 1992 to 1999
–
CDC HHSNIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK116073NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK026190NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK032083NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK032493NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK104351NIDDK NIH HHS R37 DK032083NIDDK NIH HHS R37 DK032493
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsType 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

resultsOf 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85-92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5-40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was significantly higher than all other groups (P < 0.0001). Intermediate stringency definitions showed intermediate risk and were significantly different than mIA/Any (P < 0.05); however, differences waned over the 2-year follow-up among those who did not subsequently reach higher stringency. Among mIA/Persistent/2 individuals with three autoantibodies, loss of one autoantibody by the 2-year follow-up was associated with accelerated progression. Age was significantly associated with time from seroconversion to mIA/Persistent/2 status and mIA to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

conclusionsThe 15-year risk of progression to type 1 diabetes risk varies markedly from 18 to 88% based on the stringency of mIA definition. While initial categorization identifies highest-risk individuals, short-term follow-up over 2 years may help stratify evolving risk, especially for those with less stringent definitions of mIA.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1Islets of LangerhansAutoantibodiesAutoimmunityChild, PreschoolDisease ProgressionGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansInfantProspective StudiesAutoantibodies

Identifiers

PMID36862942
PMCPMC10516254

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.