Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36860399›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2023

Optimizing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies against COVID-19 using artificial intelligence.

Vito Janko, Nina Reščič, Aljoša Vodopija, David Susič, Carlo De Masi, Tea Tušar, Anton Gradišek, Sophie Vandepitte, Delphine De Smedt, Jana Javornik and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Vito JankoDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Nina ReščičDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Aljoša VodopijaDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
David SusičDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Carlo De MasiDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Tea TušarDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Anton GradišekDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Sophie VandepitteDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Delphine De SmedtDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Jana JavornikLeeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
Matjaž GamsDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Mitja LuštrekDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

One key task in the early fight against the COVID-19 pandemic was to plan non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of the infection while limiting the burden on the society and economy. With more data on the pandemic being generated, it became possible to model both the infection trends and intervention costs, transforming the creation of an intervention plan into a computational optimization problem. This paper proposes a framework developed to help policy-makers plan the best combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to change them over time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning epidemiological model to forecast the infection trends, aggregated the socio-economic costs from the literature and expert knowledge, and used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to find and evaluate various intervention plans. The framework is modular and easily adjustable to a real-world situation, it is trained and tested on data collected from almost all countries in the world, and its proposed intervention plans generally outperform those used in real life in terms of both the number of infections and intervention costs.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceCOVID-19AlgorithmsHumansMachine LearningPandemicsCOVID-19epidemiological modelingintervention plansmachine learningmulti-objective optimization

Identifiers

PMID36860399
PMCPMC9970257

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.