ArticleApplied health economics and health policy2023
An Investigation into the Relationship Between Choice of Model Structure and How to Adjust for Subsequent Therapies Using a Case Study in Oncology.
Article in Applied health economics and health policy, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Treatments for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer: a pathways pilot with systematic review, evidence synthesis and economic model.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2026Pooled it
- Clinical Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Multigene Panel Sequencing in Advanced Melanoma: A Population-Level Real-World Target Trial Emulation.JCO precision oncology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA common challenge in health technology assessments (HTAs) of cancer treatments is how subsequent therapy use within the trial follow-up may influence cost-effectiveness model outcomes. Although overall survival (OS) is often a key driver of model results, there are no guidelines to advise how to adjust for this potential confounding, with different approaches available dependent on the model structure.
objectiveWe compared a partitioned survival analysis (PartSA) with a semi-Markov multi-state model (MSM) structure, with and without attempts to adjust for the impact of subsequent therapies on OS using a case study describing outcomes for people with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma.
methodsBoth model structures included three health states: pre-progression, progressed disease and death. Three traditional crossover methods were considered within the context of the PartSA, whereas for the MSM, the probability of post-progression death was pooled across arms. Impacts on the model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were recorded.
resultsThe unadjusted PartSA produced an ICER of £623,563, and after adjustment yielded an ICER range of £381,340-£386,907. The unadjusted MSM produced an ICER of £1,283,780. Adjusting OS in the MSM resulted in an ICER of £345,486.
conclusionsThe simplicity of the PartSA is lost when the decision problem becomes more complex (for example, when OS data are confounded by subsequent therapies). In this setting, the MSM structure may be considered more flexible, with fewer and less restrictive assumptions required versus the PartSA. Researchers should consider important study design features that may influence the generalisability of data when undertaking model conceptualisation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.