ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Global Research on Pandemics or Epidemics and Mental Health: A Natural Language Processing Study.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Pooled it
- Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Human mobility and outbreak origins in epidemic spread: Insights from agent-based modeling.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Efficient reporting delay calibration in spatial metapopulation models for reconstructing cross-regional epidemic dynamics.Biosafety and health · 2026Article
- Digital twins and systemic acceleration: insights from Luhmann's sociological perspective.Frontiers in sociology · 2026Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Human mobility and sewage data correlate with COVID-19 epidemic evolution in a 3-year surveillance of the metropolitan area of Bologna.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Can digital twin technology revolutionize public health emergency management? Insights from the PPRR framework.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Toward optimal disease surveillance with graph-based active learning.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Digital twin for pandemic monitoring and prevention: Urgent need for agreements for global data sharing.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Reply to Ekström and Ottersen: Real-time access to data during outbreaks is a key to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.