ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2023
Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083.
Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Epidemiologic Impact of Prioritizing Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir to Men Who Have Sex With Men With Low Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use Adherence in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Article
- Avoiding the cost of complacency: barriers and solutions to ending the HIV epidemic in Europe.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of leveraging long-acting injectable cabotegravir to expand PrEP coverage among MSM in two contrasting North American cities.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Perceptions of Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Individuals in Europe Using Structural Text Modeling Technique: Cross-Sectional Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Cotonou, Benin: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Article
- Active-Controlled Trial Design for HIV Prevention Trials With a Counterfactual Placebo.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- The elimination of HIV/AIDS depends on prevention and treatment strategies that address health inequalities.Cadernos de saude publica · 2025Article
- Article
- Long-acting preexposure prophylaxis: early data on roll-out in the United States.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2025Review
- Article
- Need for informed providers: exploring LA-PrEP access in focus groups with PrEP-indicated communities in Baltimore, Maryland.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness of Cabotegravir Long-Acting for HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in the United States.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Location Preferences for Accessing Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (LA-PrEP) Among Men Who Have Sex With Men (MSM) Currently on Daily Oral PrEP.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CareArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Background: The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia. Methods: An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated. Findings: We predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6-48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022-2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2-56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2-20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022-2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage. Interpretation: If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic. Funding: NIH, MRC.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.