Homelessness, Politics, and Policy: Predicting Spatial Variation in COVID-19 Cases and Deaths.

When COVID-19 began to spread in the United States, the first public health orders were to hunker down at home. But for the vulnerable people experiencing homelessness, especially those sleeping outdoors, retreating to a private dwelling was not possible. This suggests that places with greater homelessness would also have elevated COVID-19 infections. This paper examines how spatial variation in unsheltered homelessness was related to the cumulative number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. Although Continuums of Care (CoCs) with more households receiving welfare, without internet service, and more disabled residents had a higher rate of COVID-19-related cases and deaths, CoCs with more unsheltered homelessness had fewer COVID-19-related deaths. More research is needed to explain this counterintuitive result, but it may reflect the bicoastal pattern of homelessness which is higher where government intervention, community sentiment, and compliance with rules to promote the common welfare are greater. In fact, local politics and policies mattered. CoCs with more volunteering and a higher share of votes for the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate also had fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths. Yet, other policies did not matter. Having more homeless shelter beds, publicly assisted housing units, residents in group quarters, or greater use of public transportation had no independent associations with pandemic outcomes.