ArticlePloS one2023
Development and validation of prediction models for the discharge destination of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic literature review of predicting patient discharges using statistical methods and machine learning.Health care management science · 2024Pooled it
- Factors Associated with 30-Day Non-Return to Pre-Hospital Residence in Older Patients Hospitalized with Pneumonia or Lower Respiratory Tract Infection: The Role of Serum Albumin and Early Treatment Failure.Geriatrics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Predictors of Home Discharge Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Respiratory Diseases.Cureus · 2025Article
- Shaping older adults' care policy: a scoping review of key determinants in post-acute and community reintegration transitions.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- The Evaluation of Hospitalist Care for Patients with Aspiration Pneumonia Using Risk-adjusted Performance Indicators Developed from a Nationwide Inpatient Database.Internal medicine (Tokyo, Japan) · 2025Article
- Association between nasogastric tube feeding and discharge outcomes in patients aged 80 and older with aspiration pneumonia: A propensity score-matched retrospective cohort study.Journal of general and family medicine · 2025Article
- Development and validation of prediction models for nosocomial infection and prognosis in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDischarge planning enhances the safe and timely transfer of inpatients between facilities. Predicting the discharge destination of inpatients with aspiration pneumonia is important for discharge planning. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for the discharge destination of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia.
methodsUsing a nationwide inpatient database, we identified aspiration pneumonia cases for patients aged ≥65 years who had been admitted to hospital from their home or from a nursing home between April 2020 and March 2021. We divided the cases into derivation and validation cohorts according to the location of the admitting hospital. We developed two prediction models by dividing the cases based on the patient's place of residence prior to admission, one model to predict the home discharge of cases admitted from home and the other to predict the home or to a nursing home discharge of cases admitted from a nursing home. The models were internally validated with bootstrapping and internal-externally validated using a validation cohort. Nomograms that could be used easily in clinical practice were also created.
resultsThe derivation cohort included 19,746 cases admitted from home and 14,359 cases admitted from a nursing home. Of the former, 10,760 (54.5%) cases were discharged home; from the latter, 7,071 (49.2%) were discharged to either home or a nursing home. The validation cohort included 6,262 cases admitted from home and 6,352 cases admitted from a nursing home. In the internal-external validation, the C-statistics of the final model for the cases admitted from home and the cases admitted from a nursing home were 0.71 and 0.67, respectively.
conclusionsWe developed and validated new prediction models for the discharge of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia either to home or to a nursing home. Our models and nomograms could facilitate the early implementation of discharge planning.
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