ArticleEpidemiology and health2023
National trends and projection of chronic kidney disease incidence according to etiology from 1990 to 2030 in Iran: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.
Article in Epidemiology and health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Effect of an Educational Program Based on Orem's Self-care Model on Treatment Adherence, Self-care Behaviors, and Quality of Life in Hemodialysis Patients in Iran: A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2026Trial
- Investigating the impact of interdisciplinary training programs on self-efficacy and life satisfaction among Hemodialysis patients: a randomized controlled clinical trial.BMC nephrology · 2025Trial
- Efficacy and safety of prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors for anemia in chronic kidney disease: a network meta-analysis.Renal failure · 2026Article
- Therapeutic Effects of Propolis Supplementation on the Inflammatory State, Oxidative Stress, and Uremic Toxins in dialysis Patients: A Systematic Review.Food science & nutrition · 2026Review
- Association of Selected Anthropometric Indices With Diabetic Kidney Disease Among Iranian Adults With Diabetes.Endocrinology, diabetes & metabolism · 2026Article
- Early Detection of Chronic Kidney Disease in Men Using Lifestyle and Demographic Indicators: A Machine Learning Approach for Primary Healthcare Settings.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Healthy eating index and kidney function in adults: findings from the Ravansar non-communicable disease cohort.BMC nephrology · 2026Article
- Association of cardiovascular risk factors with diabetic kidney disease severity in the Iranian population.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease and its underlying etiologies from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Nationwide trends and incidence of blindness in patients with diabetic retinopathy identified using an age-period-cohort analysis.Eye (London, England) · 2025Article
- Burdens of idiopathic developmental intellectual disability attributable to lead exposure from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2035 in China: findings from the 2021 global burden of disease study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Global forecasting of chronic kidney disease mortality rates and numbers with the generalized additive model.BMC nephrology · 2024Article
- Trajectory Patterns of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score and Risk of Chronic Kidney Diseases.Kidney diseases (Basel, Switzerland)Article
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4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem worldwide. Predicting CKD incidence rates and case numbers at the national and global levels is vital for planning CKD prevention programs.
methodsData on CKD incidence rates and case numbers in Iran from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The average annual percentage change was computed to determine the temporal trends in CKD age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the CKD incidence rate and case numbers through 2030.
resultsNationally, CKD cases increased from 97,300 in 1990 to 315,500 in 2019. The age-specific CKD incidence rate increased from 168.52 per 100,000 to 382.98 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD cases is projected to rise to 423,300. The age-specific CKD incidence rate is projected to increase to 469.04 in 2030 (95% credible interval, 399.20 to 538.87). In all age groups and etiological categories, the CKD incidence rate is forecasted to increase by 2030.
conclusionsCKD case numbers and incidence rates are anticipated to increase in Iran through 2030. The high level of CKD incidence in people with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and glomerulonephritis, as well as in older people, suggests a deficiency of attention to these populations in current prevention plans and highlights their importance in future programs for the national control of CKD.
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