ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2023
Projected rapid growth in diabetes disease burden and economic burden in China: a spatio-temporal study from 2020 to 2030.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 128 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Washed Microbiota Transplantation for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: a Real World Research
The Efficacy and Safety of WMT in the Treatment of Diabetic Gastroparesis: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study
Who cites it
128 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- National, regional and provincial prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis and carotid plaque in Chinese adults: an updated systematic review and modelling analysis.Journal of global health · 2026Pooled it
- Digital Therapeutics in China: Comprehensive Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Pooled it
- Effectiveness of behavioural economics-based financial incentives and social feedback on glycaemic control and physical activity in adults with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: A randomised control trial.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Trial
- Effect of a postpartum lifestyle intervention among rural women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus from different socioeconomic backgrounds: evidence from a randomized controlled trial in rural China.BMC public health · 2026Trial
- Effectiveness of the Mobile-Based Diabetes Little Helper Video Intervention on Medication Adherence Among Older Adults Living With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Henan, China: Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Trial
- Efficacy and safety of cAMP signalling-biased GLP-1 analogue ecnoglutide monotherapy versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes (EECOH-1): a multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.Nature communications · 2026Trial
- Cost-effectiveness of community-based integrated care model for patients with diabetes and depressive symptoms.Nature communications · 2025Trial
- A study on the clinical effectiveness of a tiered management model for type 2 diabetes based on a three-level linkage mechanism in the context of residency training: a randomized controlled trial.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Trial
- Barriers and facilitators to primary care management of type 2 diabetes in Shijiazhuang City, China: a mixed methods study.BMC primary care · 2024Trial
- Effectiveness of a Family-Based Self-Management Intervention for Type 2 Diabetes Patients Receiving Family Doctor Contract Services: A Community-Based Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of primary care & community healthTrial
- Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Drug-Drug Interactions Between Cofrogliptin and Metformin in Healthy Subjects: A Single-Center, Single-Arm, Phase I Study in China.Clinical pharmacology in drug development · 2026Article
- Productivity loss associated with type 2 diabetes in China: the trend and projection from 1990 to 2050.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Medium-term to long-term effect of digital self-management interventions for type 2 diabetes mellitus: protocol of a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Quality of Chronic Care Statistically Mediates the Association Between eHealth Literacy and Self-Management Among Adults with Diabetes in a Shared Care Model.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Projections of diabetes mellitus in Japan through 2040: a bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of the national health and nutrition survey population.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- The interaction of intestinal microbiota and diabetes mellitus: A database-based quantitative analysis and visualization.Pakistan journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- [Health education preferences in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus based on Big Five personality traits].Beijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences · 2026Article
- Article
- Global trend and disparity in the burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Dialogues in health · 2026Article
- The global economic burden of diabetes for 190 countries 2021-50: a macroeconomic modelling study.Nature communications · 2026Article
68 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: This study projects the trend of disease burden and economic burden of diabetes in 33 Chinese provinces and nationally during 2020-2030 and investigates its spatial disparities. Methods: Time series prediction on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates of diabetes was conducted using a Bayesian modelling approach in 2020-2030. The top-down method and the human capital method were used to predict the direct and indirect costs of diabetes for each Chinese province. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to identify geographic clusters of low-or high-burden areas. Findings: Diabetes prevalence in Chinese adults aged 20-79 years was projected to increase from 8.2% to 9.7% during 2020-2030. During the same period, the total costs of diabetes would increase from $250.2 billion to $460.4 billion, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 6.32%. The total costs of diabetes as a percentage of GDP would increase from 1.58% to 1.69% in China during 2020-2030, suggesting a faster growth in the economic burden of diabetes than China's economic growth. Consistently, the per-capita economic burden of diabetes would increase from $231 to $414 in China during 2020-2030, with an annual growth rate of 6.02%. High disease and economic burden areas were aggregated in Northeast and/or North China. Interpretation: Our study projects a significant growth of disease and economic burden of diabetes in China during 2020-2030, with strong spatial aggregation in northern Chinese regions. The increase in the economic burden of diabetes will exceed that of GDP. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Outstanding Young Scholars Funding.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.