ArticleVirus evolution2023
Avian H7N9 influenza viruses are evolutionarily constrained by stochastic processes during replication and transmission in mammals.
Article in Virus evolution, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Transmission Pathways of Zoonotic Influenza Viruses and Influencing Factors: A Systematic Review of Recent Findings.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Evolutionary constraints limit additional mammalian adaptation of bovine-derived H5N1 influenza viruses in ferrets.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Weak selection and stochastic processes limit the emergence of antigenic variants during household transmission of influenza A viruses.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Weak selection and stochastic processes limit the emergence of antigenic variants during household transmission of influenza A viruses.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Deliberating the scientific evidence base for influenza transmission to raw milk consumers.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Review
- Recent advances in avian influenza virus: Molecular pathogenesis, emerging strains, and next-generation therapeutics.World journal of virology · 2025Review
- Viral expansion after transfer is a primary driver of influenza A virus transmission bottlenecks.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Viral expansion after transfer is a primary driver of influenza A virus transmission bottlenecks.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Amplicon sequencing of pasteurized retail dairy enables genomic surveillance of H5N1 avian influenza virus in United States cattle.PloS one · 2025Article
- A Computer Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Spectra for Empirical Data Characterization and Analysis.Biomolecules · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused over 1,500 documented human infections since emerging in 2013. Although wild-type H7N9 AIVs can be transmitted by respiratory droplets in ferrets, they have not yet caused widespread outbreaks in humans. Previous studies have revealed molecular determinants of H7N9 AIV host switching, but little is known about potential evolutionary constraints on this process. Here, we compare patterns of sequence evolution for H7N9 AIV and mammalian H1N1 viruses during replication and transmission in ferrets. We show that three main factors-purifying selection, stochasticity, and very narrow transmission bottlenecks-combine to severely constrain the ability of H7N9 AIV to effectively adapt to mammalian hosts in isolated, acute spillover events. We find rare evidence of natural selection favoring new, potentially mammal-adapting mutations within ferrets but no evidence of natural selection acting during transmission. We conclude that human-adapted H7N9 viruses are unlikely to emerge during typical spillover infections. Our findings are instead consistent with a model in which the emergence of a human-transmissible virus would be a rare and unpredictable, though highly consequential, 'jackpot' event. Strategies to control the total number of spillover infections will limit opportunities for the virus to win this evolutionary lottery.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.