Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36812536›Full record

ArticlePLOS digital health2022

A novel interpretable machine learning system to generate clinical risk scores: An application for predicting early mortality or unplanned readmission in a retrospective cohort study.

Yilin Ning, Siqi Li, Marcus Eng Hock Ong, Feng Xie, Bibhas Chakraborty, Daniel Shu Wei Ting, Nan Liu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLOS digital health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Decoding adolescent TMJ osteoarthritis with multimodal machine learning.Journal of oral & facial pain and headache · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Yilin NingCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6758-4472
Siqi LiCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1660-105X
Marcus Eng Hock OngProgramme in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7874-7612
Feng XieCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0215-667X
Bibhas ChakrabortyCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7366-0478
Daniel Shu Wei TingCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
Nan LiuCentre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3610-4883

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Risk scores are widely used for clinical decision making and commonly generated from logistic regression models. Machine-learning-based methods may work well for identifying important predictors to create parsimonious scores, but such 'black box' variable selection limits interpretability, and variable importance evaluated from a single model can be biased. We propose a robust and interpretable variable selection approach using the recently developed Shapley variable importance cloud (ShapleyVIC) that accounts for variability in variable importance across models. Our approach evaluates and visualizes overall variable contributions for in-depth inference and transparent variable selection, and filters out non-significant contributors to simplify model building steps. We derive an ensemble variable ranking from variable contributions across models, which is easily integrated with an automated and modularized risk score generator, AutoScore, for convenient implementation. In a study of early death or unplanned readmission after hospital discharge, ShapleyVIC selected 6 variables from 41 candidates to create a well-performing risk score, which had similar performance to a 16-variable model from machine-learning-based ranking. Our work contributes to the recent emphasis on interpretability of prediction models for high-stakes decision making, providing a disciplined solution to detailed assessment of variable importance and transparent development of parsimonious clinical risk scores.

Identifiers

PMID36812536
PMCPMC9931273

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.