ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2023
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cats: The New Challenge for Rabies Control in the State of Yucatan, Mexico.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Factors influencing canine rabies vaccination among dog-owning households in Nigeria.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease.
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