ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2023
Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 102 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
102 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
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- Pulmonary fibrosis complicated by lung cancer: bibliometric analysis from 2004 to 2024 - research status, trends and future directions.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Pooled it
- Dose-volume predictors of cardiac adverse events after high-dose thoracic radiation therapy for lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Possible Links Between PMInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
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- Temporal trends and forecasted mortality involving lung cancer with co-listed hypertension in U.S. adults, 2000-2035.Cardio-oncology (London, England) · 2026Article
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- The Impact of Diet on Long-Term Oncological Outcomes: Investigating Nutritional Mechanisms in Cancer Prevention Management and Prognosis.Nutrients · 2026Review
- HIF-1α siRNA Enhances the Efficacy of Erlotinib in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: A Novel Strategy to Reverse Hypoxia-Induced Drug Resistance.Drugs in R&D · 2026Article
- Interventions for unpaid carers of people living with breathlessness due to chronic respiratory diseases: Scoping review.Palliative & supportive care · 2026Article
- Artificial Intelligence in Lung Cancer: A Narrative Review of Recent Advances in Diagnosis, Biomarker Discovery, and Drug Development.Pharmaceutics · 2026Review
- Patient profiles, incidence and trends of lung cancer in Ethiopia from 2012 to 2023 using a cancer registry.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Ultrasonication-assisted green synthesis, in silico EGFR-binding analysis, and cytotoxic evaluation of nitro-perimidines for non-small cell lung cancer.Journal of computer-aided molecular design · 2026Article
- Too young to die, too silenced to love: Sexual and reproductive health of young adults receiving palliative and end-of-life care in Ghana.Palliative care and social practice · 2026Review
- Natural products as kinase inhibitors in lung cancer: molecular mechanisms, therapeutic potential, and clinical trials.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Review
- Article
- Acceptance of Lung Cancer Screening and Associated Factors in Hong Kong: A Population-Based Study.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
42 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.
objectiveWe aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.
methodsData on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.
resultsGlobal ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases.
conclusionsLC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.
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