ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2023
Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Burden of Shigella infection in children under five years living in a peri-urban area of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: A community-based cohort study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- The Burden and Genomic Characterization ofmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Updated Estimates of the Global, Regional and National Burden, and Etiology of Diarrheal Diseases Transmissible via Food: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analytical Modelling Study for the World Health Organization.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Temporal trends ofFrontiers in public health · 2026Observational
- Spatial clustering of Giardia duodenalis assemblages and sub-assemblages with environmental and anthropozoonotic factors in Busia, Western Kenya.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Shigellosis.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Review
- Review
- Evaluating the survival and removal ofApplied and environmental microbiology · 2025Article
- Assessment and comparison of model estimated and directly observed weather data for prediction of diarrhoea aetiology.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Article
- Spatial variation in housing construction material in low- and middle-income countries: A Bayesian spatial prediction model of a key infectious diseases risk factor and social determinant of health.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Assessment of Model Estimated and Directly Observed Weather Data for Etiological Prediction of Diarrhea.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
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60 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDiarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).
methodsIndividual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum.
findings20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]).
interpretationThe distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.
fundingNASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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