ArticleBMC public health2023
The social determinants of national tuberculosis incidence rates in 116 countries: a longitudinal ecological study between 2005-2015.
Article in BMC public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- Body mass index and tuberculosis risk: an updated systematic literature review and dose-response meta-analysis.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Pooled it
- Trends and determinants of tuberculosis incidence in Turkey: A secondary data analysis.Medicine · 2026Article
- The epidemiology of tuberculosis infection and the Human Development Index (HDI) in Iran between 1990-2021: secondary analysis of the global burden of disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Climate change and tuberculosis: enhancing impact through an implementation science informed agenda.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Review
- Towards universal social protection for people affected by tuberculosis in the Western Pacific Region: a social protection baseline assessment and policy entry points.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
- Trends in Tuberculosis Incidence and Mortality in South Africa and Bulgaria (2000-2023): The Impact of Income, Poverty, Unemployment, and Universal Health Coverage.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- From granulomas to tumors: post-tuberculosis immune and structural lung remodeling as a driver of carcinogenesis.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Temporal trends and associations between domestic public health spending, donor funding and tuberculosis outcomes in Africa: a serial cross-sectional study (1990-2022).BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Molecular signaling in coinfection: howFrontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Multiscale geographically weighted modeling of tuberculosis incidence in China: integrating geographic perspectives into epidemiological analysis.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Improving social determinants of health documentation in French electronic health records using large language models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Risk Factors for Treatment Failure of Drug-Susceptible Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Lithuania over 22 Years.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis treatment failure: what are the risk factors? A comprehensive literature review.Multidisciplinary respiratory medicine · 2025Article
- The social determinants of tuberculosis: a case-control study characterising pathways to equitable intervention in Peru.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Transgression of planetary boundaries and the effects on child health through an infectious diseases lens.Current opinion in pediatrics · 2025Review
- The next generation of drug resistant tuberculosis drug design.Future medicinal chemistry · 2025Article
- Spatial clusters of risk and cartography of care for drug-resistant tuberculosis.Revista de saude publica · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAccelerating declines in tuberculosis (TB) incidence is paramount for achieving global goals set for 2030 by the Sustainable Development Goals and the End TB Strategy. The aim of this study was to identify key country-level social determinants of national TB incidence trends.
methodsThis longitudinal ecological study used country-level data extracted from online databases from the period 2005-2015. We used multivariable Poisson regression models allowing for distinct within- and between-country effects to estimate associations between national TB incidence rates and 13 social determinants of health. The analysis was stratified by country income status.
resultsThe study sample included 48 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) and 68 high- and upper-middle income countries (HUMICs), with a total of 528 and 748 observations between 2005-2015, respectively. National TB incidence rates declined in 108/116 countries between 2005-2015, with an average drop of 12.95% in LLMICs and 14.09% in HUMICs. Between LLMICs, higher Human Development Index (HDI), social protection spending, TB case detection, and TB treatment success were associated with lower TB incidence. Higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS was associated with higher TB incidence. Within LLMICs, increases in HDI over time were associated with lower TB incidence rates. Between HUMICs, higher HDI, health spending, and diabetes prevalence were associated with lower TB incidence, whereas higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and alcohol-use were associated with higher TB incidence. Within HUMICs, increases in HIV/AIDS and diabetes prevalence over time were associated with higher TB incidence.
conclusionsIn LLMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, social protection spending and TB programme performance, and high rates of HIV/AIDS. Strengthening human development is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence. In HUMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, health spending and diabetes prevalence, and high rates of HIV/AIDS and alcohol use. Here, slowing rising rates of HIV/AIDS and diabetes is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence.
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