ReviewNature reviews. Drug discovery2023
Application of Bayesian approaches in drug development: starting a virtuous cycle.
Review in Nature reviews. Drug discovery, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Sensitivity analysis in Bayesian clinical trials was underused and poorly reported: a systematic survey.BMC medical research methodology · 2026Pooled it
- Placebo rates in randomized clinical trials of ulcerative colitis: an individual patient data meta-analysis.Journal of Crohn's & colitis · 2025Pooled it
- Effectiveness of dexmedetomidine on patient-centred outcomes in surgical patients: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis.British journal of anaesthesia · 2024Pooled it
- Remote, bivariate prior elicitation for a Bayesian non-inferiority randomized controlled trial.Trials · 2026Trial
- A Bayesian analysis of finerenone in heart failure with mildly reduced and preserved ejection fraction: a pre-specified analysis of FINEARTS-HF.European heart journal. Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy · 2026Trial
- Bayesian reanalysis of early remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19 in outpatients with high risk of progression to severe disease.PloS one · 2026Trial
- Efficacy and safety of 8-week regimens for the treatment of rifampicin-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis (TRUNCATE-TB): a prespecified exploratory analysis of a multi-arm, multi-stage, open-label, randomised controlled trial.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Trial
- Overview of Regulatory Guidelines Related to Methods and Models for Small Populations.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2026Review
- Perspectives on the Use of a Bayesian Approach in Designing Seamless Phase 2/3 Clinical Trials with Dose Selection, Early Stopping for Futility and Efficacy, or Sample Size Re-estimation.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2026Article
- Interpreting Non-Inferiority Across Effect Scales: A Bayesian Perspective with Clinical Translation.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2026Article
- Bayesian analysis in confirmatory clinical trials: A narrative review and discussion of current practice.Clinical trials (London, England) · 2026Review
- Sequence-defined polymers for predictable gene delivery.Nature reviews. Chemistry · 2026Review
- Focused ultrasound for brain metastases.Neuro-oncology advances · 2026Review
- Drug development for newborn brain injury.Pediatric research · 2026Article
- Accelerating Generic Long-Acting Antiretrovirals for Global HIV Treatment: Workshop Findings and a Roadmap to Access.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2026Article
- A digital twin methodology using retrospective patient data for sample size reduction in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.Alzheimer's research & therapy · 2026Article
- A Guide to Bayesian Optimization in Bioprocess Engineering.Biotechnology and bioengineering · 2026Review
- Comparative evaluation of Bayesian external information borrowing and frequentist approaches in underpowered confirmatory trials.BMC medical research methodology · 2026Article
- The Contribution of Bayesian Methods in Solving the Paradoxes of Classical Statistical Tests in Biomedical Research.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- The added value of Bayesian interim analysis in randomized phase II and phase III clinical trials in hemato-oncology.Haematologica · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The pharmaceutical industry and its global regulators have routinely used frequentist statistical methods, such as null hypothesis significance testing and p values, for evaluation and approval of new treatments. The clinical drug development process, however, with its accumulation of data over time, can be well suited for the use of Bayesian statistical approaches that explicitly incorporate existing data into clinical trial design, analysis and decision-making. Such approaches, if used appropriately, have the potential to substantially reduce the time and cost of bringing innovative medicines to patients, as well as to reduce the exposure of patients in clinical trials to ineffective or unsafe treatment regimens. Nevertheless, despite advances in Bayesian methodology, the availability of the necessary computational power and growing amounts of relevant existing data that could be used, Bayesian methods remain underused in the clinical development and regulatory review of new therapies. Here, we highlight the value of Bayesian methods in drug development, discuss barriers to their application and recommend approaches to address them. Our aim is to engage stakeholders in the process of considering when the use of existing data is appropriate and how Bayesian methods can be implemented more routinely as an effective tool for doing so.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.