ArticlePloS one2023
Mathematical modeling of pneumococcal transmission dynamics in response to PCV13 infant vaccination in Germany predicts increasing IPD burden due to serotypes included in next-generation PCVs.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Genomic and statistical models to characterizeMicrobial genomics · 2026Article
- Evolution of pneumococcal serotype 19A in children in Bangladesh: insights from genomic analysis.BMC microbiology · 2025Article
- Global impact of ten-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on invasive pneumococcal disease in all ages (the PSERENADE project): a global surveillance analysis.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Pneumococcal serotype prevalence and antibiotic resistance in children in South and Southeast Asia, 2012-2024.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Review
- Cost-Effectiveness of the Pneumococcal Vaccine in the Adult Population: A Systematic Review.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionTwo next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a 15- and a 20-valent PCV (PCV15 and PCV20), have recently been licensed for use in adults, and PCV15 has also been licensed in children. We developed a dynamic transmission model specific for Germany, with the aim to predict carriage prevalence and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) burden for serotypes included in these vaccines.
methodsThe model allows to follow serotype distributions longitudinally both in the absence and presence of PCV vaccinations. We considered eight age cohorts and seven serotype groups according to the composition of different pneumococcal vaccines. This comprises the additional serotypes contained in PCV15 and PCV20 but not in PCV13.
resultsThe model predicted that by continuing the current vaccine policy (standard vaccination with PCV13 in children and with PPSV23 in adults) until 2031, IPD case counts due to any serotype in children <2 years of age will remain unchanged. There will be a continuous decrease of IPD cases in adults aged 16-59y, but a 20% increase in adults ≥60y. Furthermore, there will be a steady decrease of the proportion of carriage and IPD due to serotypes included in PCV7 and PCV13 over the model horizon and a steady rise of non-PCV13 serotypes in carriage and IPD. The highest increase for both pneumococcal carriage and absolute IPD case counts was predicted for serotypes 22F and 33F (included in both PCV15 and PCV20) and serotypes 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, and 15B (included in PCV20 only), particularly in older adults. Between 2022 and 2031, serotypes included in PCV20 only are expected to cause 19.7-25.3% of IPD cases in adults ≥60y.
conclusionsWe conclude that introduction of next-generation PCVs for adults may prevent a substantial and increasing proportion of adult IPDs, with PCV20 having the potential to provide the broadest protection against pneumococcal disease.
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