ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2023
Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Automated model discovery based on COVID-19 epidemiological data from Thuringia, Germany.PloS one · 2026Article
- Novel cost-effective method for forecasting COVID-19 and hospital occupancy using deep learning.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- [Research on dynamic blood oxygen saturation measurement based on motion noise reconstruction combined with convex combination least mean square adaptive filter].Sheng wu yi xue gong cheng xue za zhi = Journal of biomedical engineering = Shengwu yixue gongchengxue zazhi · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies in Three African Countries Following Multiple Distinct Immune Challenges.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Perceptions around COVID-19 among patients and community members in urban areas in Cameroon: A qualitative perspective.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.
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