Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36776481›Full record

ArticleAdvances in statistical analysis : AStA : a journal of the German Statistical Society2023

A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy.

Massimo Bilancia, Domenico Vitale, Fabio Manca, Paola Perchinunno, Luigi Santacroce

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Advances in statistical analysis : AStA : a journal of the German Statistical Society, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
0.2field-weighted citation impact, top 56% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed, 1 citations in OpenAlex.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Massimo BilanciaDepartment of Precision and Regenerative Medicine and Ionian Area (DiMePRe-J), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Policlinic University Hospital - Piazza G. Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-5330-2403
Domenico VitaleMEMOTEF Department, University of Roma La Sapienza, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Fabio MancaDepartment of Education, Psychology, Communication (ForPsiCom), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Palazzo Chiaia Napolitano - Via S. Crisanzio 42, 70122 Bari, Italy.
Paola PerchinunnoDepartment of Business and Law Studies (DEMDI), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Largo Abbazia di Santa Scolastica 53, 70124 Bari, Italy.
Luigi SantacroceDepartment of Interdisciplinary Medicine (DIM) and Microbiology and Virology Unit, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Policlinic University Hospital - Piazza G. Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy.
University of Bari Aldo Moro · ITSapienza University of Rome · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.

Indexed as

Bayesian computationsBayesian modelingCausal analysisCOVID-19Gaussian processesState-space models

Identifiers

PMID36776481
PMCPMC9904269
OpenAlexW4319345305

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.