Distribution of tungiasis in latin America: Identification of areas for potential disease transmission using an ecological niche model.

Background: Tungiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Despite the high frequency in marginalized populations, little information is available on the geography and estimates of the population at risk in endemic regions. Here we used a geostatistical model to map the potential geographic distribution of areas suitable for tungiasis transmission in Latin America and estimated the at-risk population. Methods: We developed an ecological niche model (ENM) using tungiasis occurrence records and remotely sensed environmental and socioeconomic data. The potential geographic distribution was then compared to the current population distribution of the region to derive the total population living in urban and rural areas. Findings: We identified a total of 138 records of occurrences of tungiasis in Latin America, ranging from Mexico to Argentina; 27 reports were not included in the modeling, due to missing detailed geographic information. The occurrences with detailed geographic information (n = 112) included 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The locations were in environments that primarily consisted of forests (29%), croplands (16•5%), and shrublands (10•9%). We predicted environmentally suitable areas for tungiasis transmission in 45 countries. The estimated human population living in these areas is 450,546,547 with urban centers accounting for 347,007,103 and rural areas 103,539,444. Countries with significant ecological suitability and documented occurrences include Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, French Guyana, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. Interpretation: This is the first study mapping the potential distribution of tungiasis in Latin America, evidencing the need for population-based studies and elaboration of integrated control measures. Funding: This project was supported in part by an appointment to the Research Participation Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education through an interagency agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.