ArticleThe Science of the total environment2023
Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Current state and future perspectives on de facto population markers for normalization in wastewater-based epidemiology: A systematic literature review.The Science of the total environment · 2024Pooled it
- Applying weighted quantile sum regression to wastewater surveillance: enteric viral mixtures and diarrheal disease trends in Costa Rica.Journal of water and health · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater genomic surveillance: approaches, challenges, and opportunities.Genome biology · 2026Review
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in a central Chinese metropolis: variant responses and correlation with clinical cases.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Wastewater Measures of SARS-CoV-2 Accurately Predict Frequency of Symptomatic Infections in the Community.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Identifying real time surveillance indicators to estimate COVID-19 hospital admissions in Colorado during and after the public health emergency.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Advances in Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for Pandemic Surveillance: Methodological Frameworks and Future Perspectives.Microorganisms · 2025Review
- Article
- Association between SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and COVID-19 hospitalizations in three countries, 2022-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Tracking epidemic viruses in wastewaters.Microbial biotechnology · 2024Review
- Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Wastewater-based surveillance as a tool for public health action: SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2024Review
- SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in US wastewater: Leading indicators and data variability analysis in 2023-2024.PloS one · 2024Article
- The Impact of COVID-19 on Trauma Emergency Patients in Southeastern Iran.Bulletin of emergency and trauma · 2024Article
- Predictive power of wastewater for nowcasting infectious disease transmission: A retrospective case study of five sewershed areas in Louisville, Kentucky.Environmental research · 2024Article
- Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Fragments in Wastewater Detects the Spread of New Variants during Major Events.Microorganisms · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time‑lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6-11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.
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