ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2023
Development and Assessment of a Novel Predictive Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Secondary CR-GNB Bloodstream Infections among CR-GNB Carriers in the Gastroenterology Department: A Retrospective Case-Control Study.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundWith the number of critically ill patients increasing in gastroenterology departments (GEDs), infections associated with Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) are of great concern in GED. However, no CR-GNB bloodstream infection (BSI) risk prediction model has been established for GED patients. Almost universally, CR-GNB colonization precedes or occurs concurrently with CR-GNB BSI. The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram that could predict the risk of acquiring secondary CR-GNB BSI in GED patients who are carriers of CR-GNB.
methodsWe conducted a single-center retrospective case-control study from January 2020 to March 2022. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors of secondary CR-GNB bloodstream infections among CR-GNB carriers in the gastroenterology department. A nomogram was constructed according to a multivariable regression model. Various aspects of the established predicting nomogram were evaluated, including discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. We assessed internal validation using bootstrapping.
resultsThe prediction nomogram includes the following predictors: high ECOG PS, severe acute pancreatitis, diabetes mellitus, neutropenia, a long stay in hospital, and parenteral nutrition. The model demonstrated good discrimination and good calibration.
conclusionsWith an estimate of individual risk using the nomogram developed in this study, clinicians and nurses can identify patients with a high risk of secondary CR-GNB BSI early.
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