ArticleJournal of global health2023
Application of a forecasting model to mitigate the consequences of unexpected RSV surge: Experience from the post-COVID-19 2021/22 winter season in a major metropolitan centre, Lyon, France.
Article in Journal of global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Bias in the estimated reporting fraction due to vaccination in the time-series SIR model.PloS one · 2025Article
- The Interplay Between Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Asthma Inception: Insights Gained From the COVID-19 Pandemic.Pediatric pulmonology · 2025Article
- Differential impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemiological dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus subtypes A and B.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus in a large pediatric hospital in Central Italy and development of a forecasting model to predict the seasonal peak.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2024Article
- Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The emergence of COVID-19 triggered the massive implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) which impacted the circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the 2020/2021 season. Methods: A time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used early September 2021 to forecast the implications of this disruption on the future 2021/2022 RSV epidemic in Lyon urban population. Results: When compared to observed hospital-confirmed cases, the model successfully captured the early start, peak timing, and end of the 2021/2022 RSV epidemic. These simulations, added to other streams of surveillance data, shared and discussed among the local field experts were of great value to mitigate the consequences of this atypical RSV outbreak on our hospital paediatric department. Conclusions: TSIR model, fitted to local hospital data covering large urban areas, can produce plausible post-COVID-19 RSV simulations. Collaborations between modellers and hospital management (who are both model users and data providers) should be encouraged in order to validate the use of dynamical models to timely allocate hospital resources to the future RSV epidemics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.