ReviewBMC pediatrics2023
Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) of community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran.
Review in BMC pediatrics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- How social and environmental contexts shape adolescent girls' eating behaviors in Southern Iran: a qualitative directed content analysis based on the social cognitive theory.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Breaking the obesity-cancer link: assessing European school-based and complementary obesity-prevention strategies and their implementation obstacles.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The Future of Newly Diagnosed HIV Cases in Iran Through 2030: A Mixed-Methods Trend Impact Analysis.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Article
- Article
- Study Protocol for Applying Trend Impact Analysis in Health Futures Studies: A Methodological Approach Illustrated by HIV/AIDS Forecasting in Iran.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Exploring the multifaceted factors influencing overweight and obesity: a scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Exploring the Need for Medical Futures Studies: Insights From a Scoping Review of Health Care Foresight.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundChildhood obesity has been regarded as one of the main healthcare challenges in the last century, leading to critical health problems and reduced life expectancy. Many factors can play a role in its development or prevention. Using the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA), this study aimed to conduct a community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran.
methodsWe obtained the prevalence of overweight and obesity from the database of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Moreover, we reviewed 21 documents, texts, and comments from three key stakeholders in Iran and prepared a list of key experts, who were stakeholders in the field of obesity prevention of childhood in different organizations. Then, we collected the expert opinions by Delphi method. Data analysis was performed using the Excel and R software.
resultsFourteen experts participated in the first stage and nine experts in the second stage. We identified two positive drivers, including the prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the widespread expansion of online educational programs. Meanwhile, we identified five negative drivers as follows: (1) controlling and limiting obesogenic environments in the community, school, and family; (2) running annual compulsory anthropometry programs for students of all educational levels in health centers; (3) integrating nutrition education interventions in the curricula of all educational levels; (4) taxation of unhealthy and fast foods; and (5) preparing safe and appropriate sports environments for children and adolescents (on the streets, schools, parks, and sports clubs). Without considering the drivers, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is predicted to reach 29.10% in 2031. However, it is expected that the negative drivers can increase the prevalence trend from 23.40% in 2018 to 19.57% in 2031, the positive drivers to 32.61%, and the combination of all drivers to 23.07%.
conclusionIt seems that measures such as the effective communication of policy makers, basic evaluation of the programs and policies related to the prevention of childhood obesity, and localization of the programs of international organizations for the prevention of obesity can greatly control the prevalence of childhood obesity.
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