ArticleBMC geriatrics2023
A novel easy-to-use index to predict institutionalization and death in older population - a 10-year population-based follow-up study.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global patterns and inequalities in healthy aging: a multidimensional analysis using composite index and explainable AI.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Predicting successful ageing among older adults seems possible even as far as two decades ahead.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundVarious indexes have been developed to estimate the risk for mortality, institutionalization, and other adverse outcomes for older people. Most indexes are based on a large number of clinical or laboratory parameters. An index based on only a few parameters would be more practical to use in every-day clinical practice. Our aim was to create an index to predict the risk for mortality and institutionalization with as few parameters as possible without compromising their predictive ability.
methodsA prospective study with a 10-year follow-up period. Thirty-six clinical and fourteen laboratory parameters were combined to form an index. Cox regression model was used to analyze the association of the index with institutionalization and mortality. A backward statistical method was used to reduce the number of parameters to form an easy-to-use index for predicting institutionalization and mortality.
resultsThe mean age of the participants (n = 1172) was 73.1 (SD 6.6, range 64‒97) years. Altogether, 149 (14%) subjects were institutionalized, and 413 (35%) subjects deceased during the follow-up. Institutionalization and mortality rates increased as index scores increased both for the large 50-parameter combined index and for the reduced indexes. After a backward variable selection in the Cox regression model, three clinical parameters remained in the index to predict institutionalization and six clinical and three laboratory parameters in the index to predict mortality. The reduced indexes showed a slightly better predictive value for both institutionalization and mortality compared to the full index.
conclusionsA large index with fifty parameters included many unimportant parameters that did not increase its predictive value, and therefore could be replaced with a reduced index with only a few carefully chosen parameters, that were individually associated with institutionalization or death.
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