Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36750244›Full record

ArticleGut2023

Liver stiffness thresholds to predict disease progression and clinical outcomes in bridging fibrosis and cirrhosis.

Rohit Loomba, Daniel Q Huang, Arun J Sanyal, Quentin Mark Anstee, Michael Trauner, Eric J Lawitz, Dora Ding, Lily Ma, Catherine Jia, Andrew Billin and 13 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Gut, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
13.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 93 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Clinical Outcomes and Non-Invasive Testing in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis With Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Progression to Decompensation of Severe Fibrosis Compared to Cirrhosis in MASLD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Guideline
  5. Pooled it
  6. Trial
  7. Trial
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Review
  11. Threshold-Defined Liver Stiffness Trajectories and Liver-Related Event Risk in Chronic Liver Disease: A Cohort Study.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Noninvasive Tests for Predicting Decompensation in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease: A Comprehensive Review.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Review
  19. Real-World Assessment of Liver Corrected T1 and Magnetic Resonance Elastography in Predicting Liver Disease Progression.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors at 17 institutions in 8 countries.

Rohit LoombaDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California at San Diego, University of California at San Diego, San Diego, California, USA roloomba@ucsd.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-4845-9991
Daniel Q HuangNAFLD Research Center, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5165-5061
Arun J SanyalDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond, Virginia, USA.
Quentin Mark AnsteeTranslational and Clinical Research Institute, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Michael TraunerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-1275-6425
Eric J LawitzTexas Liver Institute, UT Health San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, USA.
Dora DingGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Lily MaGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Catherine JiaGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Andrew BillinGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Ryan S HussGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Chuhan ChungGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Zachary GoodmanBetty and Guy Beatty Center for Integrated Research, Inova Health System, Falls Church, Virginia, USA.
Vincent Wai-Sun WongDepartment of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2215-9410
Takeshi OkanoueHepatology Center, Saiseikai Suita Hospital, Suita, Japan.
Manuel Romero-GómezUnit for The Clinical Management of Digestive Diseases and CIBERehd, Hospital Universitario de Valme, Sevilla, Spain.
Manal F AbdelmalekDuke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Andrew MuirDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Nezam AfdhalDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Beth Israel Medical Center, Harvard University Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Jaime BoschInselspital Universitätsspital Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Stephen HarrisonRadcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Zobair M YounossiCenter for Liver Diseases, Inova Fairfax Hospital, Falls Church, Virginia, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9313-577X
Robert P MyersGilead Sciences Inc, Foster City, California, USA.
Gilead Sciences (United States) · USBeth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · USCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas · ESChinese University of Hong Kong · HKClinical Research Institute · USDuke University · USInova Fairfax Hospital · USInova Health System · USMedical University of Vienna · ATNational University of Singapore · SGNewcastle University · GBSaiseikai Suita Hospital · JPThe University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio · USUniversity Hospital of Bern · CHUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of San Diego · USVirginia Commonwealth University · US

Funding

UC San Diego Clinical and Translational Research InstituteUL1TR001442 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI FIRESTEIN, GARY S, HOGARTH, MICHAEL · 2015 to 2024
$88.3M
Yeast Genetics and Stress Response Genes-BiomedicalP42ES010337 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI TUKEY, ROBERT H · 2000 to 2022
$69.8M
Pediatric Trials in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)U01DK061734 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI ROHIT LOOMBA · 2002 to 2026
$24.4M
Tissue-specific roles of FXR in CVD and NASHP01HL147835 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI LOOMBA, ROHIT · 2020 to 2024
$12.2M
Northwestern Cancer Prevention ConsortiumUG1CA242643 · NCI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI SEEMA Ahsan KHAN · 2019 to 2026
$11.9M
San Diego Digestive Diseases Research CenterP30DK120515 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI LARS ECKMANN, Bernd G. Schnabl · 2019 to 2026
$10.8M
Pathogenesis, prognosis, and treatment of NAFLD patientsU01DK061713 · NIDDK · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI ANNA MAE ELIZABETH DIEHL · 2002 to 2026
$10.3M
HIV MASLD Clinical Research Network (HCRN)R01DK121378 · NIDDK · INDIANA UNIVERSITY INDIANAPOLIS · PI NAGA P CHALASANI, ROHIT LOOMBA · 2020 to 2026
$8.7M
Novel IL-23 inhibitor for the treatment of alcohol associated liver diseaseU01AA029019 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI KISSELEVA, TATIANA, LOOMBA, ROHIT · 2020 to 2024
$3.7M
QUS Technology for Diagnosis and Grading of Hepatic Steatosis in NAFLDR01DK106419 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI LOOMBA, ROHIT, SIRLIN, CLAUDE B · 2015 to 2019
$3.4M
San Diego Cirrhosis Clinical Research NetworkU01DK130190 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI ROHIT LOOMBA · 2021 to 2026
$2.3M
Prediction and Prevention of Hepatic Decompensation in Patients with CirrhosisU01DK130177 · NIDDK · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI MATTHEW R. KAPPUS, Cynthia A Moylan · 2021 to 2026
$2.0M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001442NCI NIH HHS UG1 CA242643NHLBI NIH HHS P01 HL147835NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA029019NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK120515NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK106419NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK121378NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK124318NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061713NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061734NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK130177NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK130190NIEHS NIH HHS P42 ES010337
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveIn retrospective studies, liver stiffness (LS) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is associated with the risk of liver decompensation in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), but prospective data in biopsy-confirmed cohorts with advanced fibrosis are limited. We aimed to establish thresholds for LS by VCTE that predict progression to cirrhosis among patients with bridging fibrosis and hepatic decompensation among patients with cirrhosis due to NASH.

designWe used data from four randomised placebo-controlled trials of selonsertib and simtuzumab in participants with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4). The trials were discontinued due to lack of efficacy. Liver fibrosis was staged centrally at baseline and week 48 (selonsertib study) or week 96 (simtuzumab study). Associations between LS by VCTE with disease progression were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

resultsProgression to cirrhosis occurred in 16% (103/664) of participants with bridging fibrosis and adjudicated liver-related events occurred in 4% (27/734) of participants with baseline cirrhosis. The optimal baseline LS thresholds were ≥16.6 kPa for predicting progression to cirrhosis, and ≥30.7 kPa for predicting liver-related events. Baseline LS ≥16.6 kPa (adjusted HR 3.99; 95% CI 2.66 to 5.98, p<0.0001) and a ≥5 kPa (and ≥20%) increase (adjusted HR 1.98; 95% CI 1.20 to 3.26, p=0.008) were independent predictors of progression to cirrhosis in participants with bridging fibrosis, while baseline LS ≥30.7 kPa (adjusted HR 10.13, 95% CI 4.38 to 23.41, p<0.0001) predicted liver-related events in participants with cirrhosis.

conclusionThe LS thresholds identified in this study may be useful for risk stratification of NASH patients with advanced fibrosis.

Indexed as

Elasticity Imaging TechniquesNon-alcoholic Fatty Liver DiseaseBenzamidesDisease ProgressionHumansImidazolesLiverLiver CirrhosisProspective StudiesPyridinesRetrospective StudiesBenzamidesImidazolesPyridinesselonsertibcirrhosisfibrosisnonalcoholic steatohepatitis

Identifiers

PMID36750244
PMCPMC9905707
OpenAlexW4295074172

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.