ArticleGeoHealth2023
Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Article in GeoHealth, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 37 citations in OpenAlex.
- Transfusion-transmitted malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Plasmodium spp. carriage in blood units and confirmed transmission in recipient.Malaria journal · 2026Pooled it
- The burden of malaria in East Africa: prevalence, risk factors, and control strategies.Malaria journal · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of sample size estimation accuracy on power in malaria cluster randomised trials measuring epidemiological outcomes.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Pooled it
- Spillover dynamics and asynchronous temporal fluctuations in host density and competence drive fungal parasite persistence in multi-host, seasonal communities.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Predictive Modelling of Climate-Driven Malaria Transmission for Optimal Control Using a Coupled SEIR-SEI and GIS Framework.Public health challenges · 2026Article
- Anopheles gambiae biting behavior and malaria transmission risk in Simiw, a community located in the coastal forest zone of the Central Region of Ghana.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Geospatial mapping of malaria risk in flood-prone zones of Sub-Saharan Africa.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Cerebral malaria in resource-limited African regions: Diagnostic and therapeutic challenges.Infectious medicine · 2026Review
- Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Tropical oceans drive variability in soil moisture and malaria in Malawi.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- The persistent threat of malaria in Bishoftu Town: twelve-year trends and their implications for Addis Ababa.BMC research notes · 2026Article
- Fatal and non-fatal health outcomes of malaria among reproductive age women in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, from 1990 to 2023.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of climate and control interventions on spatio-temporal malaria dynamics using a stochastic metapopulation model.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Analysis of clinical malaria hotspots according to transmission levels in two health areas of the Kolondieba health district, Mali.MalariaWorld journal · 2026Article
- Associations between precipitation, temperature, and malaria prevalence in children under 5 in Mali.PloS one · 2026Article
- Seasonal Climate Drivers and Immunohematological Profiles of Malaria in Rohingya Refugee Camps, Bangladesh: A 4-Year Repeated Cross-Sectional Study.Journal of parasitology research · 2026Article
- A malaria seasonality dataset for sub-Saharan Africa.Scientific data · 2025Article
- The November-2023-March-2024 malaria epidemic in Zanzibar: a spatiotemporal epidemiological analysis.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Urban malaria in Accra, Ghana: transmission risk and influence of irrigated vegetable farms.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A new database of the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) was used to directly link the risk of infectious mosquito bites to climate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Applying a statistical mixed model framework to high-quality monthly EIR measurements collected from field campaigns in Sub-Saharan Africa, we analyzed the impact of rainfall and temperature seasonality on EIR seasonality and determined important climate drivers of malaria seasonality across varied climate settings in the region. We observed that seasonal malaria transmission was within a temperature window of 15°C-40°C and was sustained if average temperature was well above 15°C or below 40°C. Monthly maximum rainfall for seasonal malaria transmission did not exceed 600 in west Central Africa, and 400 mm in the Sahel, Guinea Savannah, and East Africa. Based on a multi-regression model approach, rainfall and temperature seasonality were found to be significantly associated with malaria seasonality in all parts of Sub-Saharan Africa except in west Central Africa. Topography was found to have significant influence on which climate variable is an important determinant of malaria seasonality in East Africa. Seasonal malaria transmission onset lags behind rainfall only at markedly seasonal rainfall areas such as Sahel and East Africa; elsewhere, malaria transmission is year-round. High-quality EIR measurements can usefully supplement established metrics for seasonal malaria. The study's outcome is important for the improvement and validation of weather-driven dynamical mathematical malaria models that directly simulate EIR. Our results can contribute to the development of fit-for-purpose weather-driven malaria models to support health decision-making in the fight to control or eliminate malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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