ArticleEpidemiology and infection2023
Early detection of local SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks by wastewater surveillance: a feasibility study.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Wastewater-based epidemiology reveals spatiotemporal dynamics and diurnal temperature range effects on post-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 infection burden in Chongqing, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Interpretation of indoor air surveillance for respiratory infections: a prospective longitudinal observational study in a childcare setting.EBioMedicine · 2025Observational
- The impact of signal variability on COVID-19 epidemic growth rate estimation from wastewater surveillance data.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Advancing Public Health Surveillance: Integrating Modeling and GIS in the Wastewater-Based Epidemiology of Viruses, a Narrative Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Temporal assessment of SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater and its epidemiological implications in COVID-19 case dynamics.Heliyon · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in US wastewater: Leading indicators and data variability analysis in 2023-2024.PloS one · 2024Article
- Population infection estimation from wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Nagpur, India during the second pandemic wave.PloS one · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the pilot wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, June 2022 - March 2023.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- The importance of occupation in the development of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scandinavian journal of work, environment & health · 2023Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Wastewater surveillance and quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA are increasingly used to monitor the spread of COVID-19 in the community. We studied the feasibility of applying the surveillance data for early detection of local outbreaks. A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed, applying data on reported variation in RNA gene copy concentration in faeces and faecal masses shed. It showed that, even with a constant number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedders, the variation in concentrations found in wastewater samples will be large, and that it will be challenging to translate viral concentrations into incidence estimates, especially when the number of shedders is low. Potential signals for early detection of hypothetical outbreaks were analysed for their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity of the signals. The results suggest that a sudden increase in incidence is not easily identified on the basis of wastewater surveillance data, especially in small sampling areas and in low-incidence situations. However, with a high number of shedders and when combining data from multiple consecutive tests, the performance of wastewater sampling is expected to improve considerably. The developed modelling approach can increase our understanding of the results from wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.
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